Projected Child Population, by Race/Ethnicity

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Learn More About Demographics

Measures of Demographics on Kidsdata.org
Indicators on kidsdata.org cover a range of demographic measures from a variety of sources:

The number of births overall and per 1,000 women (the General Fertility Rate), and the number and percentage of births by mother's race/ethnicity, come from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH).

The number of births outside of marriage, overall and as a percentage of all births, are available for California and the U.S.; these data come from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and also are available by mother's race/ethnicity.*

Estimates of the child population from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community survey are available overall and by race/ethnicity for counties, cities, school districts and legislative districts; also available are estimates of the number and percentage of California and U.S. children living in rural and urban areas.

County-level estimates (from 1995) and projections (to 2060) of the child population overall, by gender and age group, and by race/ethnicity, are available from the California Department of Finance; also available are estimates and projections for the total population.
Data on school enrollment overall and by race/ethnicity come from the California Department of Education.

Data based on student reports of parent education level, youth sexual orientation, and transgender status come from the California Healthy Kids Survey; depending on the indicator, estimates are available by grade level (7, 9, 11, and/or non-traditional), gender, level of school connectedness,** parent education level, and sexual orientation.

* California data from CDPH and CDC should not be compared due to potential differences in race/ethnicity coding.

** Levels of school connectedness are based on a scale created from responses to five questions about feeling safe, close to people, and a part of school, being happy at school, and about teachers treating students fairly.
Demographics
Characteristics of Children with Special Needs
Family Structure
English Learners
Immigrants
Teen Births
Why This Topic Is Important
Child and family demographic trends help project potential needs for education, child care, health care, and other services. Demographic projections point to an overall shortage of children relative to older populations, which will lead to workforce and taxpayer shortages in the coming decades (1, 2). This means each child is more important to the future of California and the U.S. than ever before (1). It also means that leaders need to invest in programs and policies that nurture children and help them reach their potential, and they need to align service systems with shifting demographics. For example, leaders can ensure that culturally appropriate services are available for families and that communities with higher concentrations of children have adequate resources in place to support them.
Demographic factors also matter because the circumstances in which children are born and grow up—as well as larger structural forces such as economics, institutions, and policies—strongly influence their health and well being (3). Decades of research demonstrate inequities in children's well being by race/ethnicity, parent education level, socioeconomic status, and other social characteristics (3, 4, 5). In addition, factors such as youth sexual orientation and gender identification are important, as LGBTQ youth are at increased risk for bullying victimization, substance abuse, child maltreatment, and other negative health and social outcomes (6, 7). The demographic composition and circumstances of children, youth, and families can provide critical insight into population needs.

For more information, see kidsdata.org’s Research & Links section. Also see the following topics on kidsdata.org: Family Income and Poverty, Immigrants, and Family Structure.

Sources for this narrative:

1.  Myers, D. (2017). The new importance of children in America. Lucile Packard Foundation for Children's Health & Children's Hospital Association. Retrieved from: https://www.lpfch.org/publication/new-importance-children-america

2.  Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. (2018). Demographic background. In America's children in brief: Key national indicators of well-being, 2018. Retrieved from: http://www.childstats.gov/americaschildren/demo.asp

3.  Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Commission to Build a Healthier America. (2014). Time to act: Investing in the health of our children and communities. Retrieved from: http://www.rwjf.org/en/research-publications/find-rwjf-research/2014/01/recommendations-from-the-rwjf-commission-to-build-a-healthier-am.html

4.  Child Trends Databank. (2015). Parental education. Retrieved from: https://www.childtrends.org/?indicators=parental-education

5.  Flores, G., & American Academy of Pediatrics Committee on Pediatric Research (2010). Racial and ethnic disparities in the health and health care of children. Pediatrics, 125(4), e979-e1020. Retrieved from: http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/125/4/e979

6.  Burwick, A., et al. (2014). Human services for low-income and at-risk LGBT populations: An assessment of the knowledge base and research needs. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families. Retrieved from: https://www.acf.hhs.gov/opre/resource/human-services-for-low-income-and-at-risk-lgbt-populations-an-assessment-of-the-knowledge-base-and-research-needs

7.  Choi, S. K., et al. (2017). LGBTQ youth in California's public schools: Differences across the state. Williams Institute. Retrieved from: https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/research/safe-schools-and-youth/lgbtq-youth-ca-oct-2017
How Children Are Faring
The number of children in California has been on the decline since the mid-2000s, from an estimated 9.56 million in 2004 to 9.26 million in 2018. Population projections indicate this figure will fall to 9.17 million by 2060. The proportion of children in the state's total population also is decreasing, from 28% in 1995 to 23% in 2018, with a projected drop to 18% by 2060. In line with these trends, California's birth rate has declined in recent decades, from 76 births per 1,000 women in 1995 to 62 per 1,000 in 2015, the most recent data available.

Population structure and dynamics vary widely at the local level. According to 2018 estimates, five Southern California counties are home to more than half of the state's child population—Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino—with more than one in four children living in Los Angeles County alone. By contrast, counties in the Central Valley have among the highest birth rates and proportions of children within the population; e.g., the percentage of children in Kings County relative to the population overall is more than 30% (compared with 22% for Los Angeles and less than 15% for San Francisco) and the birth rate in 2015 was more than 80 per 1,000 women (compared with 58 per 1,000 for Los Angeles and 46 per 1,000 for San Francisco).

In 2018, Hispanic/Latino children made up more than half (52%) of the state's child population, up from 41% in 1995, and white children made up about one-fourth (27%), down from 40% in 1995. At the county level, estimates of the proportion of Hispanic/Latino children in the total child population ranged from 7% to 90%, while the proportion of white children ranged from 8% to 83%. Statewide, 11% of California children were Asian American, 5% were African American/black, 5% were multiracial, and less than 1% were American Indian/Alaska Native or Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander.
Estimates of parent education levels, available from 2013-2015 surveys of public school students, indicate that between 37% and 39% of California 7th, 9th, and 11th graders had parents who completed at least a 4-year college degree, while 10% to 15% had parents who did not finish high school. Students in non-traditional programs, those with low levels of school connectedness, gay/lesbian/bisexual students, and Hispanic/Latino youth were more likely to have parents who did not finish high school than their peers in other groups.

Statewide estimates of youth sexual orientation from the same surveys show that 7% of 11th grade females and 4% of 11th grade males identified as gay, lesbian, or bisexual, while 2.5% of all 11th graders were unsure about their sexual orientation. In addition, an estimated 1.1% of 11th graders identified as transgender.
Policy Implications
Understanding demographic trends is an essential part of policy and program planning. Policymakers need to understand the size and composition of the populations they serve, how that varies by geography, and how conditions are changing, in order to plan appropriate policies and programs to meet community needs. The environments in which children are born and raised have a profound impact on their health and well being (1, 2). Data on kidsdata.org and elsewhere show persistent inequities in child and youth outcomes according to demographic factors such as race/ethnicity, geography, socioeconomic status, parent education level, and LGBTQ status (1, 2, 3). For example, children of color and low-income children generally fare worse across measures of health and well being for reasons that are avoidable (1, 2). Policymakers have a role in addressing these disparities and ensuring that all children and families, regardless of social position or circumstance, have equitable opportunities to thrive (1, 2).

Demographic projections elucidate additional reasons to invest in children. Data point to growing numbers of retiring seniors, a shrinking child population, and expected workforce and taxpayer shortages in the coming decades, making children a more important resource than ever before (4). Society's increasing reliance on a relatively smaller population of children creates a new urgency to ensure today's children and families have the support they need to reach their full potential.

Policy and program options to address inequities in child well being and promote healthy, thriving children and families include:
  • Investing in the health and development of young children, especially those from low-income families, as the early years provide a foundation for lifelong well being; in particular, ensuring that all families have access to affordable, high-quality child care and early education (2, 4, 5)
  • Fostering stable, nurturing family relationships and home environments by ensuring that effective services are in place, including culturally appropriate parenting education, family support, mental health, and home-visiting services for families in need (2, 5, 6)
  • Ensuring that every young person has access to family-centered, culturally competent, coordinated health care within a medical home (7)
  • Supporting a comprehensive approach to health care that goes beyond treating illness to addressing social determinants of health, such as access to healthy food and safe housing (2)
  • Maintaining and strengthening social safety net programs (e.g., nutritional support, housing assistance, and tax credits), and increasing enrollment among eligible children and families (8)
  • Promoting safe, healthy schools and communities in which all youth have access to supportive relationships, needed services, and positive opportunities; this is especially critical for vulnerable groups such as LGBTQ youth (1, 5, 6, 9)
  • Ensuring equitable access to high-quality K-12 education and affordable postsecondary education, including adult education opportunities for parents (1, 3, 10)
  • Building neighborhoods that are safe and designed to promote health; as part of this, incentivizing collaboration among community planning, housing, transportation, health care, public health, education, and other sectors (1, 2)
  • Allocating community resources and distributing services in alignment with demographic trends, so that neighborhoods with the largest concentrations of children have adequate infrastructure and services to support family needs (11)
  • Promoting cross-sector strategies to reduce service fragmentation and system barriers, so that families can more easily navigate and access needed services (1, 2)
For more information, see kidsdata.org’s Research & Links section. Also see Policy Implications on kidsdata.org under Family Income and Poverty and Immigrants.

Sources for this narrative:

1.  National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2017). Communities in action: Pathways to health equity. Retrieved from: http://nationalacademies.org/hmd/reports/2017/communities-in-action-pathways-to-health-equity.aspx

2.  Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Commission to Build a Healthier America. (2014). Time to act: Investing in the health of our children and communities. Retrieved from: https://www.rwjf.org/en/research-publications/find-rwjf-research/2014/01/recommendations-from-the-rwjf-commission-to-build-a-healthier-am.html

3.  Child Trends Databank. (2015). Parental education. Retrieved from: https://www.childtrends.org/?indicators=parental-education

4.  Myers, D. (2017). The new importance of children in America. Lucile Packard Foundation for Children's Health & Children's Hospital Association. Retrieved from: https://www.lpfch.org/publication/new-importance-children-america

5.  Murphey, D., et al. (2014). Are the children well? A model and recommendations for promoting the mental wellness of the nation's young people. Child Trends & Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Retrieved from: https://www.rwjf.org/en/library/research/2014/07/are-the-children-well-.html

6.  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2014). Essentials for childhood: Steps to create safe, stable, nurturing relationships and environments. Retrieved from: https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/childmaltreatment/essentials.html

7.  National Resource Center for Patient/Family-Centered Medical Home. (2017). Why is medical home important? American Academy of Pediatrics. Retrieved from: https://medicalhomeinfo.aap.org/overview/Pages/Evidence.aspx

8.  Danielson, C. (2018). California's Future: Social Safety Net. Public Policy Institute of California. Retrieved from: https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-social-safety-net

9.  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2017). Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender health: LGBT youth. Retrieved from: https://www.cdc.gov/lgbthealth/youth.htm

10.  Noguera, P. A. (2017). Introduction to "Racial inequality and education: Patterns and prospects for the future." The Educational Forum, (81)2, 129-135. Retrieved from: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00131725.2017.1280753

11.  McCroskey, J., et al. (2017). Birth trends and family demographics across Los Angeles County: How are they changing and why it matters. Children's Data Network. Retrieved from: http://www.datanetwork.org/cdn-apps/snapshots-of-child-well-being-in-los-angeles-county
Websites with Related Information
Key Reports and Research
County/Regional Reports
More Data Sources For Demographics